Probabilistic Risk Assessment in Space Launches Using Bayesian Network with Fuzzy Method
نویسندگان
چکیده
Space launch projects are extremely risky, and any equipment failure or human error may lead to disastrous consequences. Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is beneficial qualitative analysis of risk, but it has not been paid enough attention in for space systems (SLSs). Compared with most this field, paper proposes a framework based on Bayesian network (BN) fuzzy method, which suitable probabilistic SLS. This method establishes model SLS statistics expert experience reduces the uncertainty by using theory. By predicting system probabilities, diagnosing key causes, determining conduction path, performing sensitivity analysis, proposed aimed at alleviating drawback deal more effectively uncertainties field launches. A case study launches demonstrates verifies also provides guidance similar engineering projects.
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Aerospace
سال: 2022
ISSN: ['2226-4310']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/aerospace9060311